When Will Self-Driving Cars Get Here? CES 2019 Demo Reveals Promise

When Will Self-Driving Cars Get Here? CES 2019 Demo Reveals Promise


I just got back from CES in Las Vegas, and there is a lot of exciting things happening in fully autonomous vehicle tech. Some companies are further along than others. Let’s take a look at what’s being developed.

MKBHD Yandex Taxi Ride:

Bosch Self Driving Pod:

The Best of Self Driving Shuttles and Cars of CES 2019:

Waymo:

Yandex Taxi:

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73 Comments on "When Will Self-Driving Cars Get Here? CES 2019 Demo Reveals Promise"


  1. Why can't self driving cars be made like the self driving robots in factory's. They only need ONE line and they follow it. All we gotta do is paint one line in the middle of every lane and the car will follow as long as you program the GPS.

    Also every line should be made in a way that feeds information to the car about the road. The speed limit, when to brake when to accelerate, obstacles. If you ever played a racing game it would be similar to the training stripe on the road. Cars that join the grid would be shown as a blimp and would be processed as traffic.

    Reply

  2. My biggest complaint about Tesla Autopilot is that it likes to slam on the brakes for objects that pose no collision threat. A car turning left across my travel lane, Autopilot apparently doesn't understand that the car will have moved out of the way by the time I get there. Also, vehicle stopped on the shoulder on a curved section of road, Autopilot freaks out. I swear Autopilot is going to get me rear-ended one of these days. People have honked at me for its idiotically abrupt and unnecessary braking.

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  3. That Yandex demo through busy streets with parked cars either side was very impressive. I liked the way the car adjusted its position between the cars. And the journey was also impressive. I'd like to know what road speed all this was being done at.

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  4. I see these in future cities where no one drives. That will make things safer, easier for anyone to use. Helping those who are not currently Mobil. There will be many benefits we don't see now. But there will be a lot of work and tech advances to get there.

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  5. Anyone else have their PC grind to a halt on this vid? Task manager sees no problem but I can barely get these words to show up.

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  6. Hey Ben, great job a always! Long time follower. My work purchased a Model S back in August. I made my first road trip in the vehicle to CES last week. My thoughts and feelings about navigating with Autopilot (in Mad Max mode) are as follows: 1. It's very convenient when it comes time to exit the freeway. 2. Sometimes the car suggested changing lanes when it wasn't necessary but the car thought if I didn't change lanes I wouldn't remain on my charted course. I don't know if this is a map issue or a GPS issue. 3. I found myself having to apply what I thought was too much force to the steering wheel in order to keep autopilot engaged (I didn't have a bunch of oranges to stuff in the steering wheel). I found myself only navigating in autopilot around the exit I needed and would just use the adaptive cruse portion of autopilot. I took care of steering and changing lanes for about a third of my trip. I'm still getting used to how the vehicle operates in this setting.

    I am waiting patiently for Level 4 enhanced autopilot to be unlocked so I can choose when to drive and when to take a nap.

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  7. The Russian car sped up it's video speed. On the highway, cars passed like it was standing still. Deception, even at a Expo, shouldn't be tolerated. It ain't a video game.

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  8. On an unrelated topic, I fear Elon may get fed up with the unfair scrutiny, announce he's out as CEO, announce he'll be selling 5% of his stake annually, walk away from Tesla to focus on his grand ambitions at SpaceX. Please, tell me why I shouldn't worry.

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  9. Good question… 'Do you have autopilot, and has it ever scared you?'
    Yes, I have had autopilot since AP1 was first introduced for my Model S, I think it was late 2015. I was amazed by it from the start. It got better and better. This September I got the Model 3 P, with AP2. At first I was mildly disappointed. I thought the AP1 was better is some cases. Soon, I realized AP2 is better, and of course it has more cameras and better sensors, and will get much better than AP1 can ever do.

    Now, has AP ever scared me? No, it hasn't. The reason for that is simple. I am 100% aware that it is imperfect. I watch everything it does. I'm always prepared for any of the crazy things it occasionally does. I expect them. Sometimes it unpredictably veers to the right or left, probably because some road markings confused it. It does not do that often but it can do it at any time. When it does, I catch it before it goes eight inches in the wrong direction. Or for any other mistake. Of course, just like all driving experience, I can make a mistake, and that includes missing an AP error. That would be my mistake, not AP's. I see others complaining that AP makes mistakes. I know it makes mistakes and expect them.

    People who complain about this, or criticize the car or AP probably shouldn't be using it. If they are not just commenting on third party information, but are actually driving the car, they are using something they don't understand, and are likely to get hurt by it, and it will be their fault if it happens.

    I believe the vast majority of Tesla AP users treat it just like I do. They know its weaknesses, and they don't want to be hurt, so they watch it carefully.

    The media loves to report on what they believe (usually wrongly) are AP failures that cause accidents. That would be impossible. Only the driver can be responsible if he is controlling a car that has an accident, with or without AP.

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  10. Those pod-cars look stupid safety wise. We can't deny they look cool but they can't put those on the road.

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  11. The only thing that concerns me is that when using NOA, the car will start to make a lane change when I can see a car approaching at a high rate of speed that I know would either have to slam on the brakes or hit me. I'm surprised that it can't calculate the closing rate and wait until the approaching car has passed.

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  12. I Love my Model x. Autopilot I use whenever I like to relax, speak with my passengers, watch the landscape. This is far more then 50% of driven km. Not so when I wanna reach my goal fast. Very often there are speed limitations recognized by the car, but not true and not what traffic signs are showing. At least here in Spain. That nerves. And roundabouts seem to me unknown by my lovely car. Let's hope for future updates. By the way, no update last three months. Is my island(Canaries) location the reason?

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  13. I started working with computer simulations in early 80s. If you had told me where A.I> would be nearly 40 years on I would never have believed it. I wouldn't have believed you because it's pathetically miles behind where I thought it would be way back then.
    Back then I expected I could have at least engaged at a certain level as i would with an assistant or aide with my simulation software on a daily basis by year 2000 at most – e.g. leaving general verbal or written instructions and guidance and letting computer just get on with a study and report. Here we are 2019 – and no closer. I barely work any differently than when I did back in 1984. Simulations are grander and more comprehensive and involved – but that's about it. Nothing black swan and perspective altering shifts.

    Same with driverless car AI. What's behind driverless cars doesn't impress much when you lift the lid and inspect all the progress (or lack of it) more closely and analytically.
    Realistically – putting the recent circus/ hoopla aside – it evidently can be seen that it remains decades away – as in many decades away.

    For those of you who are still buoyantly optimistic – consider the following quote

    "Within the next few years ….and certainly within the next generation we will have machine intelligence equal or superior to average human" – Prof Marvin Minsky MIT a.k.a The Father of A.I.
    Year of this prediction?
    1968!
    Yes – you read that right – 1968

    Dream on dreamers

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  14. Used my Autosteer in Autopilot for the first time on a winding twisting turning up and down empty road with centerline and lines on the shoulder. I was uneasy that the car would veer into the empty oncoming lane or drive onto the shoulder as we made every turn. My hand was on the steering wheel but did no turning. Was deloghted how the car slowed down on the sharp turns and how the steering was so precise. Will be sure to use it on the multi lane roads as soon as I take one long trip.

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  15. I have EAP on our Model 3 and we LOVE it. Yes, you have to pay attention and babysit it some, but it's remarkably good 98% of the time. And it's getting better with every mile driven by every Tesla in existence.

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  16. I've never been one to travel Mass Transit unless absolutely necessary. Living in Central Texas, there isn't many options where I live that makes using those options are feasible. I've taken the light rail in Austin, it was a fun experience, but I have no reason to do it daily. I've never used the Metro Service, but I'm also not student on a budget who would get to use the Metro for Free. Overseas, we used public trans a lot, which to me, translates to as close to autonomy as I could get at that point. High Speed Trains, Taxi Vans, Ferry Boats… I was merely a passenger who was taken from Point A to Point B, and it took a lot of the anxiety away of learning new driving laws or tribal knowledge that I would have to experience if I drove myself. We have a Tesla Model 3, and while we use EAP just about anywhere we go (even to the grocery store), I like that I can contribute this experience to the overall network that Tesla uses to further progress their Autonomy Protocols even more. While I feel comfortable with EAP, there are still situations in which my mind's interpretation of a situation outranks EAP and I will take over the driving (knowing the existing boundaries of one's EAP) . There are also situations where I just flat out, feel like driving. Learning how to let go has been educational experience since owning a Tesla and I can only expect that it will be a culture change that will be introduced everywhere in which it can be used to ease the burden of emissions, waste of time and financial strain on City budgets (and Citizen's Tax Dollars).

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  17. I too went to CES, by Tesla AP2, 24 hours on the road but I barely did any driving. It was more about taking pics, seeing sights, and all the other things you can do while the car drives itself. Sure, I couldn't keep my hands in my lap, but I have a production car that I was able to drive like this for most of 2018, and it has only been getting better. If I had fallen asleep like the guy in the Russian car it would have taken me to my destination and stopped at the bottom of the exit ramp w/o killing me.

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  18. I have a 2017 Model X with AP2, so I'm using Autodrive a lot of the time, especially on my way to and from work. It's not as predictable as I would like, sometimes leaving extended gaps between itself and the car ahead, or not reacting quite as fast as it really ought to at times, and needing to brake a little harder as a result. All of that I chalk up to teething issues, this is a new technology, and it needs fine tuning.
    I know this much, while it hasn't saved me from a definite accident, it has kept me from what could have been close calls, even though I like to think of myself as a fairly attentive driver. In it's current iteration, I see Autodrive as a welcome layer of protection for myself, my passengers, and my car. I firmly believe it can only get better as time goes on.

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  19. That's not driving in snow, that's what a consider a wet road. In snow is about 2 inches deep in snow when you can't even see the lines.

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  20. Hi Ben, Thanks for awesome content. I heard i that if the tesla M3 battery dies (0 charge), and if it gets towed by another car for 1 miles, it will recharge itself to go for 10 miles. Could please please make a video on this to see is it true?

    Reply

  21. Those pods remind me of Light Rail. So personal light rail cars without the rails? I'm liking where this is heading. Thanks for the video.

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  22. Hello Ben, could you fiddle around with
    your arms less?
    This kind of transport cabins, the pots,
    is great. Absolutely important is that they
    have to be spacious. The feeling like in a
    train, or in a bus, or in a big luxury car has
    to be there. And just as important is that
    you decide how many people you want
    to drive at the same time (of course it
    depends on the price).
    People will love it.

    Reply

  23. Companies can adjust setting to optimize performance and safety. Having autonomous public cars is far cheaper than any alternative public transportation system and this makes it very compelling. If the manufacturers of said transports can set the max speed to 40 or 50 mph, I'm confident they can operate with minimal detriment and provide new jobs and business opportunites.

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  24. this will.make it easier on guys like me with classic cars….less asshats driving means less chance of our cars getting ruined….hopefully no one tries to keep everyone off the roads though…I enjoy driving some of the time, like many people. I would just use autonomous mode for the few times where I would rather just take a nap. I fear that a war on driving could develop rather than using this technology to supplement humans rather than remove them

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  25. Why don't they just… Have a fleet of drones that fly along routes and report road conditions to the fleet of autonomous vehicles.

    I also want to see drones that fly out of UPS trucks. So one driver is with the truck and loads the drones while parked and then they drop the packages off.

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  26. That Bosch tram looks like the automated people mover (SkyLink) at DFW airport.

    But those vehicles aren't really "driving", as Ben said. The Bosch tram is basically a tiny train that doesn't have rails.

    Would I trust it? Sure! — once those things are segregated, and placed in a controlled environment, most of the risk factors have been removed.

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  27. I was most impressed that the Russian self-driving taxi in Moscow didn't slow down a singly kph when it went rocketing by the pedestrian (05:16) standing in the road ! Now that's a self-driving car with an attitude !!

    The Waymo van would have stopped dead in its tracks and turned on the flashers …..

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  28. Man, I wish this technology had showed up about a decade earlier. This could really transform my grandparents' life (they live about 30 minutes out of a town with pretty shit public transit to begin with).

    With technology like this, plus the advancements in medicine/personalized medicine, & robotics/prosthetics, & maybe even anti-senescence medicine, hopefully people in my mom's generation will live much more comfortably in their 80's & 90's than folks in my grandparents' generation have… & if we could pass single payer healthcare in the US, that could make it even better.

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  29. 3:56 How does the Yandex car know there is a car three lanes over and about four car lengths ahead? Their demos have the screen blurred. Maybe they are really good with self driving tech. It could also be they have a real driver doing it via remote control.

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  30. I'll buy one in 20 years when it is perfected and humans are no longer allowed to drive. I hope this means our government puts the insurance side of it on the companies designing them and selling them. If they are that much better than humans we should no longer have to pay insurance on them. One less bill we should all have to pay since these things will be so safe and since we the consumer will have no control. That will be a great day when I see that.

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  31. Hopefully never cause we need jobs. Make the tech executives live under the freezing overpasses and create self executiving corporations. See how they like their own worshipped techie future!

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  32. Imagine the road rage with the people riding in these cars if one glitches out. "Why is your AI swerving?! It almost hit me!" "It wasn't swerving,it was warming up it's tires." "Oh great! Now it thinks it's a race driver!" Wow,the possibilities…more intoxicated people would be riding in these things. What would the car forums look like? "How can I upgrade my AI to do Scandinavian flicks?" How bout the aftermarket business advertisements? "Replace your OEM AI with our 'Stiggy V1' it is 99% smarter than your average factory AI,Stiggy V1 knows how to heel toe downshift,takes the optimal racing lines within it's own lane,drift capable and more!" What would the law makers think? "We need to prohibit the public from accessing and purchase of these aftermarket AIs,they are out driving our law enforcement self drive AIs,tho they are not killing anybody or causing any environmental harm,we need to stop this." Driving enthusiasts will be a thing of the past and the enjoyment of driving,the rewarding experience you get from great operation of your own vehicle would be replaced by a great smooth operating AI. It would be different for sure but I'd would like to drive my own car the old fashioned analog way,not these automated cars. If we had to come to an agreement,having both available on the same vehicle would be best.

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  33. Hopefully NEVER 100%! I like driving just not in traffic so adding safety systems like semi-autonomous features will drastically improve safety and will make driving even more pleasurable! A human driver will always be needed especially in harch unpredictable weather when the sensors are not working optimally!

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  34. 2:05 Aren't you getting the concept of supply and demand kind of bass-ackwards at this point? At the very least, I figure it should be pointed out that it's an inverse of the traditional curve (more riders = greater demand => price goes DOWN?!).

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  35. Just make autonomous trains and build more train tracks. That solves all of the autonomous car problems years sooner, except for the part where automakers, auto insurance and gas companies do not make a ton of money.

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  36. you seem to underestimate the progress being made. "quicker and easier process to get there"?

    the tech/software for those pod like cars to drive on predesignated roads with no unexpected traffic or obstacles has been fully achieved easily since 2017/18…

    so that is not even a challenge anymore.

    right now, the engineers working on self-diving cars are chasing the long tail of edge cases that require more of an "intuitive" approach to solve. however, with the help of machine learning and neural nets, they're making great progress. for instance, you can find talks given by Waymo engineers that demonstrate how their software is already capable to solve a host of those difficult edge cases today. imho, it is absolutely not a matter of 10+ years until the tech far surpasses the average human driver in almost all scenarios, but more like a matter of 2 – 6 years (which coincides with the predictions given by pretty much all major car manufacturers).
    legislation of course is another matter.

    in addition to that, it is possible to remotely control autonomous vehicles.

    so for example, a company that offers a self-driving taxi service may employ something like 10 human drivers per 100 vehicles (the numbers are just a wild estimation on my part) who do not sit in the vehicles, but in an office. when one of the cars on the road encounters an edge case, a human driver can take over remotely (either with the help of several screens providing a sufficient field of view or a VR headset), drive it a couple of meters to solve the issue, and then let the software continue.

    if a company employs that strategy, then in terms of technology, self driving services could probably already safely deployed this very day…

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  37. Self driving cars won't make less cars on the road, they will have less cars in parking lots because everyone will still need to get where they want to go, but because the service uses them more than an owner (who parks them) parking lots will change to charging lots.

    But EV busses might have more room on roads considering 20 people in a bus is smaller than 20 cars on the road.

    Also, ai is getting better at an exponential rate. It can do what was said to be impossible in half the time each time it does said impossible thing.

    1969 ai created
    30 years later (1999) beats chess master
    15 years later (2014) beats go master
    8 years later (2022) self driving cars?
    4 years later (2026) home robots and 100% vehicle sales are EVs
    2 years later (2028) half of all jobs are done by Ai
    1 year later (2029) the singularity

    I know this sounds crazy, but just by looking at the numbers of how many years it takes before it can do what was theorized to be impossible and that it always shrinks by half, it looks like that's what will happen.

    Other than that, I don't see any way of predicting Ai's capabilities in the future.

    But when they beat go, they thought it was way to soon to do that, by decades. So maybe the same is true for the future.

    And Tesla, self driving is like having a 13 year old take the wheel, but their emergency safety systems are better than any professional could possibly do.

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  38. This is in behalf of old / sick folks. Present system has it that we drive until we have an accident. They take our liscence and you need to use taxi, relatives, kindness of strangers or in rare cases public transportation. My neighbor (age 98) had this happen and getting his liscence back is an ordeal. For people like this (and me) we need driver assistance ASAP. It does not need to be perfect but just make us safer drivers.

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  39. At this pace of innovation, a decade is more than enough to reach level 5 autonomy in G20 countries.

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  40. Why do the chairs face each other? Human interaction is minimal at best. Passengers will be staring at their phones or laptops.

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  41. I’m visually impaired and the one thing I need is a self driving car that looks like a fucking car cos I obviously can’t drive so this is the only way I can get that type of independence

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  42. Disability discounts for service dogs, emotional support dogs, and autonomous cars please? Thank you. PS How about a service older puppy and an autonomous car, PC dell laptop, Photoshop Elements 2020, and a film editor and digital pen with it? Seat cover too. For people and dogs first.

    Reply

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