Automotive Arbitrage and Self-made Millionaires (7/10/19) Full Show

Automotive Arbitrage and Self-made Millionaires (7/10/19) Full Show



not responsible for its content or the products or services offered another something completely different forget everything you've been told by others before get ready for the real deal the whole story the whole enchilada the Lance Roberts show its money markets life now back by popular demand it's the lamps Roberts show and what we so this morning it is 607 as we kind of get things underway on this hot day edition okay that's right getting there Mike Mike Mike physically we're getting there slowly but surely who's the most obnoxious commercial it was the best commercial ever and because it's memorable well have you seen the new guy have you seen the new guy from commercial now which one the now shows they've got all the old characters right they've got the lady with the you know she's talking to her son he's the secret agent yeah it's like the squirrels are back in the Attic again and the caveman's they gave Everett trailer getting on no no see you don't you don't even know the commercial no they're all the same hairdressing salon you know getting their makeup in the makeup area and the camel isn't the one that has this he's the big guy yes yes oh he's got his own trailer mm-hmm you're gonna bring the joke at least know the punchline well it's early have you had your coffee yet well I just made it it's too hot to drink I haven't ignored to say about that coffee's supposed to be hot you're like the McDonald's lately you know there's hot coffee and then there's dangerous coffee are you especially when it's called death wish that's right so it really doesn't even need a mug exactly it just kind of stands up on its own yes yeah the only coffee you eat with the spoon that's right but no I haven't had it yet that explains the last one see this so you know I told you recently I took Daniel Reese's advice we oh yes recently nope just recently we did an interview with Daniel Reese who's an auto industry analyst the specialist and if you go by our website go to our youtube channel on our website go to real investment advice that come quickly YouTube tab top real easy to get there subscribe while you're there and we'll notify you of all our great releases we have a really good one coming up next week with Rob Powell hedge fund manager then it's an excellent interview about markets economies etc but we did this interview with raw power and I'm sorry with a Daniel Weiss about autos and he made the notation that trucks were holding up their value exceptionally well car prices were drawn being dramatically and and and so I took his advice and I arbitrage my vehicle I sold my truck for the same amount that I bought it for two years ago yeah and traded on a used vehicle Lord my monthly payment yep saved a bunch of money so it's really good so it all worked out really well well I got home yesterday guess what's in my garage what new car really yeah but not new it's a 2016 you did it again no I didn't my wife oh what's that what she gives she was listening to the show yeah she went down as she swapped her a she drove a Range Rover yeah thousand 14 2014 we don't by the way the ladies no we don't buy anything new right we only buy used and but she swapped to buy those in pairs well apparently I do now one to drive while the other ones in the shop arrange Arvada bought a little Lexus is 209 2016 yes oh yeah he's all happy zippy zippy I'm like but you know you probably grudges Lee something's different here I thought I had I know the front of your car your Toyota looks like a stormtrooper from Star it does happens I've been thinking about how to maximize yet look yes star decal somewhere no I mean you know it is interesting though because she saved a lot of money yeah she got a good basically got a great trade-in value on the unarranged and bought this little is 200 cheap oh yeah cheap cheap and that thing will run for yeah I know and it's it's only got like 21,000 miles on 2016 7 21,000 miles on it's brand-new you know but it was part of a lease program yeah and all these and this is and we talked about this with Daniel 2 is that there's a but so let's kind of step back in time here real quick and remember that right after the financial crisis see this is all the up incumbents of these type of transactions that governments get involved in that right after the financial crisis we did this whole thing called cash for clunkers and the government was paying people to trade in their used vehicles which they didn't crush them and took them out of the system so what this left was was this big dearth of vehicles of used vehicles that people like me want to buy and raised the cost of used vehicles to the point that guess what it was cheaper to buy a brand new vehicle which guess who that benefited yeah you got it that benefited the automakers that was the whole plan about cash for clunkers was to get the used car system out which would raise the cost of used cars to the point that people were buying new cars which they were doing of course they couldn't afford them so we had to start financing them at six seven and eight years in order to get them to afford the payments this elevated the prices of cars but it helped bail out companies like GM Ford others that were and financially in trouble all great fine and dandy well a lot of people went and bought these brand new vehicles to put them on lease because they couldn't afford the monthly payment so it was cheaper to lease than it was to actually buy cars leases are terrible things if you don't use them properly they can't be beneficial I know there's a lot of people I always like are I get a good benefit okay that yes there are ways to use the least advantageous Lee tax wise okay but most people don't they just use the least to get a cheap vehicle but now all these cars are coming off lease now you've got this burgeoning a issue of used cars that are now coming up prices of used cars are falling and now there's this divergence between truck prices and auto prices which are is completely unprecedented to it to a large degree which is making the ability for people to drive trucks to arbitrage into a car actually a fairly good deal right now so this is what we're talking about are less just to catch you up this is what we're talking about of last couple of weeks and my wife was listening and apparently only one question I have she never you know she never listens to the show unless it revolves around something she can buy of course she's like hey that's a good idea he won't be bad at me at this she's right just you got a great deal what color did she get she wanted white I didn't have it so she went up with black nice so it's appalling magnet it's a pollen magnet it's a dent magnet it's a chip magnet that's everything that might bite right the reason I know this is my truck that I traded in was black one of the reasons I traded it in because it was black my Toyota it now is white for a reason and it's because it looks like a storm trooper we'll be right back after the break don't go away Lance Roberts blog it's required reading for the informed investor catch you today on Lance Roberts show calm hi this is Danny Rattlers and this is Richard Rosso our ia advisors financial Lunch and Learn series continues join us this month for informative helpful sessions on social security planning for couples as well as sessions on avoiding mistakes in your financial plan and selecting a trusted financial advisor the financial lunch & Learn sessions are free and we'll even provide the lawn register today for our next lunch to learn at our ia advisors com click on the events tab for the link our ia advisors dot-com our ia advisors dot-com if you're looking to sell or buy a home and in need of the best Realtors out there look no further than the matthews team at Remax Legends Ronnie and Cathy Matthews have instilled in each and every team member their hard work and honest values and believe me it's paid off this incredible teams agents has an average tenure of over 10 years so it's clear that the Matthews team truly knows the Houston area market and what it takes to get a home sold quickly their employee-owned they care about their clients and they always go the extra mile to ensure that each sale and purchase is seamless and smooth the Matthews team are the number one Remax team in Texas and had been for over 20 years call the matthews team at 281 for 4'o 7900 or see for yourself and go online at Ronnie and Kathy dot-com they sell over 900 homes a year and they know every inch of the buying and selling market in the Greater Houston area called the matthews team i chose them as my realtor and you should too the matthews team and Remax legends your realtor for life two eight one four four o 7900 that's two eight one four four o 7900 sex ed in texas needs to go beyond teaching abstinence really and have you heard of the AOC challenge creative freedom-loving Americans standing up to AOC when the majority the Republican Party won't you got all that and so much more coming up in the crystal sailors show see you at seven o'clock right after Lance Roberts here on AM 700 kse be the voice of Texas and as we check your traffic if this early warning our already a major problem working to tell you about it's gonna be an accident on the south of eastbound just before you get D Co cross blocking one left in to center lanes and also on the westbound side of that location three lanes are being blocked meanwhile disabled vehicle right shoulder Gulf Freeway northbound just past the South build to sit on the left shoulder 2:25 westbound at the east loop in the West Loop northbound at 290 even though they're on her shoulder as we always say watch for mergency vehicles moving in and out of traffic to clear those up and also disabled bus is locking the right lane on the east built northbound service road at Fairmont Park Way but there is a wrecker on the scene so hopefully they'll have that cleared up shortly as traffic on am 700k SCV the voice of texas and welcome back to the show this morning it is 6:17 so we get the winter way Danny Ratliff certain 500 some planner join us it would help if you turn this mic on that was me it was damn it dude drink some coffee I did just not enough I got the music started it's not just radio anymore I know exactly Rican TV your weapon you know you know what I tell my son Brent yeah yeah a job that is only 80% done is not complete oh yeah I totally agree and I'm not complaining well brick has had to evolve quite a bit I mean he really has no think about I mean you guys can check us out on Facebook on Vimeo so many different places a YouTube channel we're back in the day it was a neutrally apple podcast yeah Spotify back in the day it was strictly your own imagination exactly you're probably better for yeah so much for theater of the mind exactly it's now the face of radio has a whole new meaning oh yeah and that's why I'm on this so all right couple things first of all we've got a class coming up Saturday we do if it's a retirement right lane workshops gonna be KT Mills they're at the Courtyard Houston so it's the old school Marriott I guess they headed yeah name change but we'd be covered lots of great information Social Security Medicare tax friendly retirement income which is huge because we think about what's going on right now you hear everybody look at the debates oh we're gonna have seventy percent taxes are you okay with it well I'm okay with raising taxes yeah so we do know look you got to remember that these different types of 401k accounts IRAs tax deferred accounts that we've been so ingrained to put funds into year after year after year and unfortunately it's worth about only twenty five percent of people actually do it but what well but but even with that the majority of Americans their savings is inside an account similar to that yes so you have to think about that you're in this partnership with Uncle Sam and unfortunately something that it's overlooked time and time again by financial advisors so it's one thing that we we really hone in on is how do you create how do you get away from that how do you create that flexibility how do you utilize Roth conversions do you have a Roth 401k do you have other alternatives there are many different ways to put funds aside that are gonna help you alleviate taxation and look right now we have a great benefit at least until 2026 and plus you know hey they do something before then but we have a lower tax bracket for most people so take advantage while you can so we're give you lots of ideas around that how to start 10 control and give you more flexibility in retirement which i think is huge talk about senior housing strategies that's another thing I think is very overlooked but it's interesting the feedback we get on that land it's like wow I've never thought of that and the implications that it can have on a financial plan right yeah senior housing is important I mean I'm thinking a cardboard box yeah I mean hey rich he's already bought a tiny house and it's out the middle nowhere he's building his commune I know my senior housing is cardboard box in the dirt I mean what you can't live past 70s that wouldn't yeah the seventies my mark okay all right we got a few more years I don't think you should live longer than 77 that's good you know I've got one word for you grandkids that's why I'm trying to check out before they come no all right you do not want to miss that I know it's the greatest club my kids have already got my grandpa main picked out really yeah and it is I won't tell you oh come on you can't do that to us Gramps no no no the the name had nothing it could not have anything to do with Grandpa Gramps Popoff yeah Pappy none of that alright so they had to come up with their own original name then they did pretty good Weezer no I'm going to tell you but I think if we ever if I have great kids and we're still doing the show I'll tell you then mark the tape actually and they actually even made me a t-shirt already oh then I got for Father's Day that's Martin prepared and you open it up and go okay which one of you is it exactly at this point are the funny line last night yep what happened in Vegas is gonna be five years old I think the kids were trying to get him to make sure he didn't pass that 70 mark I would have had a heart attack I would have gotten there yeah because I mean I told this story on the air before is that I was in the car my wife and I were discussing our state plan and we had all we had all the kids in the back we're going to dinner and so we had to make a couple of changes for our state planning and part of our state planning is our you know we have this life-insurance policy that's in a trust that you know covers our state toilet yep you know but yeah it's an islet and it's all set up and of course that's growing tax-free tax-free income for retirement you should really if you haven't thought about using a whole life policy to fund a tax-free retirement you should talk to Danny about it because it's a great way to do it it is it is the permanent life insurance can be a great tool yep and so we're talking about this the front seat and then we hear this voice of a back seat that says exactly how long you planning on living so the kids then started to have a conversation amongst themselves to you know trying to figure out the best way to get rid of both their parents because they were disappointed to find out that after I pass away which is they thought that was the mark right there's like no no no it all goes to Kristina mom's got to go to BA oh so mom's got to go and it's amazing her daughter who she's like you know this with was like hmm so mom so two rules that to learn about this is one learn how to use a permanent life insurance policy to fund a tax-free retirement and to don't tell your kids about it that's right and you know speaking those permanent life insurance policies they give you so many different options in the sense that if you over fund these you do it correctly and you have it set up right and look there are so many caveats that are overlooked with this as well that this has to be done right especially with loan provisions being able to grow more than what the interest that they charge and that's a big thing I think that when we see a lot of these policies that you know they look great there and Danny they accumulate cash but they have a couple nuances that will just kill the policy at the end of the day and so wouldn't you you think about these this is something really good for a lot of business owners that we see somebody who can't put funds into a Roth they make too much income or you just have an alternative or additional cash you need to put somewhere right this is a strategy that you could implement and so it's not for everybody but it it can be a really nice tool especially in retirement well the problem is is that you have so many people out there that are the poopoo permanent life insurance policies like oh just by term why would you spend all that money on a permanent life insurance policy when you just by term and the problem is and that all sounds great because the problem is though is that they forget to tell you the other half of a story by term it's cheap all right that's that's only half the story the story is by term invest the difference of what you would pay for a permanent life insurance policy that when so when the term life insurance expires when it does expire at zero right you've spent 30 years paying for a term life policy that it has no value at the end you're supposed to be fully insured because you've been investing the differential between your permanent life what you would have paid for permanent life insurance versus your term and that has now grown to now make you self insure the problem is is that they a nobody tells you that the other half of the story has you invest the other half right well they just they just want you to buy the term most these people are doing this just once you buy the term policy that's how they make their money the second thing is is they that most people don't do the other part of it they wind up spending the savings on living expenses etc and of course we've talked about the financial the you know stability of households in this country right now they are grossly under saved so they only did half the job and now what the line up with is being uninsured at the point in time when you need to be insured and unable to get insurance because if the cost will be too high because of your age or eve now contracted some type of health issue diabetes something else prostate cancer etc that now have disqualifies you from being insured at all one of the one of the best stories I have as I was meeting with a gentleman and we were talking about state planning and financial planning and doing this other stuff and investing money could have a good bit of money he was doing very well for himself and I kept talking do you really really need to get a life insurance policy because you're gonna have some estate tax issues down the road if you don't get this taken care of and you need to go get life insurance and get this covered you kept putting it off putting it off because you didn't want to do life insurance you know it's expensive it's it's you have to face mortality when you do life insurance and of course you'd hurt all these things bad things about how much of a waste of money life insurance was well so when we finally got around to getting his life insurance done he went to get a check and had cancer oh man now he's uninsurable so the issue is is that you don't put these things off because things can happen in life that can really derail your financial plan yeah that's exactly right I actually met with somebody a client of ours last two weeks ago and with the estate attorney he's like man you need life insurance you know I don't care if you want it or don't want it you need it yeah because if not if you're over the the amount that you're gonna be able to that you know for a state planning you're gonna have a 40 percent tax on that amount whatever it may be which is huge so a lot of these a lot of the states are illiquid you have a lot of land you may have other assets you don't want to sell you want to give down and that's where you see a lot of bigger issues and that's kind of getting more on the the estate planning part of it but the other aspect is that one really cool thing about life insurance that most people don't realize is that you can take part of the cash value and is in the form of a loan so it doesn't look like any income if you do this all properly right and this does not impact Social Security it does not impact Medicare this is this allows a lot of people to retire earlier and actually continue to push off Social Security until 70 because s that continues to grow they're they're able to start living off this life insurance policy or you use it for kids education I mean it's limitless as far as what you can do with it and the thing is is that you didn't and when you throw out the word long right people immediately go oh I gotta pay it back no that's the best part about it your own money you borrow against your policy it's your own money the rate of return the policy pays generally outstrips the cost of the loan so your policy actually keeps growing although at a slower rate it keeps growing and you never pay the money back when you pass away they simply deduct along from the value of the cash payout that goes to your family cetera and you're all good yeah it's a really neat thing it's not for everybody but it should be included in a holistic financial plan so do think of it that way don't go talk to somebody say oh here's what you need here's and that's that's one thing and we do it very differently here because we buy the least amount of policy that's right we can we want to spend the least amount possible in the premium because it's all about the over funding issue and for me it's like a big giant super Roth I can't contribute to a Roth IRA so this is my Roth IRA on steroids that's right and it's the best thing ever anyway all right okay quick little gets we have to get in some real work here we right back after the break I'm your host Lance Roberts on today's edition light opera so don't go away get daily investment news you can use deliver to the speed of the internet sign up for Lance's newsletter now at blance Robert show.com hi this is Danny Rattlers and this is Richard Rosso our ia advisors financial Lunch and Learn series continues join us this month for informative helpful sessions on Social Security planning for couples as well as sessions on avoiding mistakes in your financial plan and selecting a trusted financial advisor the financial lunch & Learn sessions are free and will even provide the lawn register today for our next lunch to learn at our ia advisors com click on the events tab for the link our ia advisors dot-com our ia advisors dot-com you're driving down the road and suddenly your check engine light comes on your mind immediately begins to race is this serious what does this mean am I about to break down who can I trust to repair this properly without being taken advantage of hi this is Rona from skeeters Auto Service home of the Texas car doctor radio show we're old fashioned unparalleled customer service meets the latest in technology we're not going to overcharge you or sell you what you don't need we're not going to keep your car for days on end and we will always try to give you options that fit your budget my dad always taught us do the right thing for the right reasons work hard and success will always follow we pride ourselves in doing just that each and every day at skeeters Auto Service check us out at skeeters Auto comm like us on Facebook or give us a call at two eight one four six nine eleven fifty-two when animal shelters get too full to take in more strays there is only one thing they can do to make room and that is unfortunately to euthanize those they are housing just think of it poor dogs and cats are put down for no reason at all other than to make room how do you save their life while saving other dogs and cats at the same time fostering is one of the most rewarding ways you can help not only will you be saving their life for the animal but helping clear space if this sounds like something you would like to do contact bark or the Harris County Animal Shelter meanwhile Houston pets live is an organization at rescue dogs and cats off the kill lists of both but they get filled up too so they're also looking for fosters while fostering shelters will help with food and any animal medical care needs to foster for Harris County Animal Control go to County pets calm for bark log on to Houston TX gov slash BARC and if you'd like to foster for Houston pets alive go to Houston pets alive org please foster and safe a Forever Friends Life Paul Berlin a radio icon his unique style and more personality endeared him to so many his endless stories and great music will never die Paul may no longer be with us but his memory will live on KS CV is proud to continue with the best of Paul every Saturday evening 6:00 to 8:00 p.m. Paul say the best as he closed his show we'll meet again at 700 a.m. K s Evy in heavenly houston and that forecast for today is a seasonably hot one will see plenty of sunshine high 96 partly cloudy down to 78 tonight the shower or thunderstorm chance begins tomorrow high 93 will be keeping our eyes on the northern Gulf where we're looking for a tropical system to develop they bury it could impact our area Friday and into the weekend with some showers and storms Friday's high 95 the K s CB Weather Center forecast i meteorologists will Pierce and welcome back to toast born in 633 so I've been you know I've been kind of watching with interest this whole epstein case doesn't one on right now of course if you're not up to date right now Jeffrey Epstein is this sexual predator I can't really put any other way that's what he is has been reinforced ekend time now in new york and is up on charges of sex trafficking I'm not really interested in it from the the aspect of the political spin on this that's been going around me because everybody's were you know he's got links to drunken Clinton and everybody right I mean this guy has been rubbing elbows with the rich and famous for years multi billionaire of course yeah that's the interesting part about this that's what interests me about this case you cannot find out anywhere how this guy actually made his money it is the biggest now most people are pretty easy when you have billions of dollars it's pretty easy to go oh where'd he get his money right he got it from his dad you know it was inherited or he you know he did this he built this company etc well he's a hedge fund quote-unquote hedge fund manager but nobody can really figure out exactly how he made all this money even even there's a good bit of air of mystery even around his real estate holdings about how he acquired some of these things and so it's it's just interesting because you know here's this guy this very high-profile but yet no one really knows how much he's actually worth even though you know he's got a look he's got a lot of assets right he's got like 12 million in a private jet fleet of cars townhouse and you know Mexico he's got a Manhattan town home that's worth like does he seven mil any live in the Caymans or something yeah so you know it's it's it's interesting but nobody really knows and the more digging I do there's all these conflicting stories about how he actually wound up with his money and where he actually made his money from so I think that maybe the more I think the more interesting byline out of this story is that if you know this investigation proceeds in acts he goes into a real trial and people actually start digging they may find out that there's more activity outside of just what was going on I mean one of the theories is that he's been running a Ponzi scheme quote-unquote like Bernie Madoff hmm for a long time he's just never gotten caught yet he weasels that on the sex charges and the IRS gets him well isn't it crazy what did this initially happen he got in trouble for this like in 2002 or something like yeah and and he got a sweetheart plea deal on it too he had money well that's that's that's what all this is about right is that because of his connections did he get a lesser charge than he should have because of the money he had ability to to spend and and look this guy's smart I mean he has donated to cancer research and you know just a plethora of different charities and organizations and support he's given money to just virtually about every political member of Congress at one point or another so you know he's supported the bill the Hillary bill Bill Clinton campaigns I mean this guy has been a figure in the political and social and charitable circles for years so you know when you have that and of course you know when you've done that people owe you favors and that's why you got that deal apparently the last time we'll see if we'll see what happens this time but I think the more interesting story about this because I'm always interested in this is you know how do people how do successful people become successful right because if if somebody becomes successful and you can emulate them guess what happens right you tend to generate more success that's why all these self-help books are so popular right yeah but have you ever noticed that these self-help books are generally about people who aren't successful they got sick it was like I was reading this but I was reading this book the other day right and it's actually I wasn't reading the book I was reading the review of the book this guy he he went from two dollars in savings to like a million dollars yeah and he did that by writing a book about how to get rich but he wasn't rich yeah he wasn't rich but you wrote the book about how to get and and and of course all these millennial snapped up the book they all want to be millionaires right worse and now he's worth a million bucks surprise right there's a market it is the epitome of the old of the old joke which is you know how to become a millionaire write a book about how to become a millionaire and I mean this guy actually capitalized on it is great got a website you know the the hole he's doing classes now and had to be a millionaire and it's great these teaching people how to write books about how to be a million you know you need to cut back and you save basically now he's teaching them the basic financial stuff and they're paying him for these classes to learn how to do this right so it's just he's built a whole business and look and and nothing wrong with that right I mean the guys created wealth and he's created a successful business teaching people how to get out of debt right yeah been more than one person in this country that does it absolutely and you know suze orman Dave Ramsey I mean they've all made millions of Suze Orman's worth like 60 million bucks now from doing just that it's amazing so you can make a business night but anyway that so the point is is that you want to make a business out of this we got one going come on that you know I admire people who are successful yet for money a business and when you start digging down into somebody that you can't figure out how they made their money I mean it just goes it just starts to look a little bit iffy well it doesn't you know you met you hit on the first one was a Ponzi scheme and then you know it's funny I Google the rescuer speak just you're talking about when you brought it up and you know our minds always go to the worst right no the next ones blackmail you know the next conspiracy yeah for taxes money laundering you know but you watch ya know I didn't take this long for somebody actually question like huh what's going on I know it's don't think this is anything new I think this has been people haven't questioned this for a long time but again you know he was running around in the circles you know robbing matter yeah people were saying well I I you know I'm curious but I don't really want to know as long as you're contributing my campaign right you know better better not to ask don't know don't anyway I just think this is gonna be interesting I think it's just an interesting thing to watch and I do think that you know we're probably gonna find out a lot more about his background because now it's it's a much different profile than it was back you know previously this is a much higher profile situation because of his links to Trump and this is gonna be all coming out in the washer pretty shortly so oh I bet ya he has any links to Trump you know something coming out right well the interesting thing is is they talked to the original prosecutor and investigator into the into the original case and when they were going around and interviewing people Donald Trump at the time before he was president was the only one that willingly openly cooperated with the investigation everybody else is like I say nothing oh he was like yet what you want to know and so you know he was the only one that was actually cooperative in this so you know he doesn't have anything there's no link there but there you know the media's gonna try to make a link out of it oh yeah they shook hands at a gala yeah anyway sidelines so a couple of things going on yesterday we talked about you know the market here in the course the markets have hit all-time highs and everybody's very excited this is a good thing but today is the day right this is gonna be a very important day today for Jerome Powell makes testimony up at Capitol Hill it's his annual congressional testimony and he's gonna be talking about you know Fed policy and and what's gonna be interesting is I think we're gonna see some congressmen beginning to ask him or senators I should say ask him about his you know independence as the Federal Reserve Chairman of course there's been lots of comments from the White House directed towards Jerome Powell about possibly demoting him or firing him because he wasn't doing a good job he wasn't being and he wasn't cutting rates and doing more liquidity like the other central bankers in the world and why we want to be like other countries in the world that are basically on the verge of bankruptcy I'm not sure but you know this is what has been you know pushed so far that I think see some questions about the Fed independence but this is also the opportunity for Jerome Powell to backpedal just a bit here and say look we are independent we're not going to just cut rates you know because of political pressure we're gonna cut rates or raise rates or not do anything based on the economic data we just have a two hundred and twenty four thousand jobs report last week while we are seeing some signs of weaker manufacturing data we're not seeing a tremendous amount of weakness in the services side of the index as well so there's still the this you know overall strength in the economy that wouldn't suggest that this is the time to cut rates and I think this so what to listen for today is any type of positioning by Jerome Powell that says hey we may wait until September to get more data in before cutting rates if that happens you could very well see some downside pressure in the markets because the markets had have currently priced in a hundred percent chance of a 50 basis point cut I'm sorry eighty percent chance of a 50 basis point cut at the end of this month and a hundred percent chance of a 25 basis point cut at the end of this month and if there's any type of indication that that may not turn out to be the case you could see some sell offs in the market because again we haven't resolved the trade issues either those are still there so markets have been hanging on this idea of rate cuts be right back after the break wrap up the show get back with Danny here when we come back and do some other stuff get by the website real investment advice com get our latest blog post YouTube's and more all at the website real investment advice com get daily investment news you can use deliver to the speed of the internet sign up for Lance's newsletter now at blance Robert show.com hi this is Danny rattler and this is Richard rasa our ia advisors financial Lunch and Learn series continues join us this month for informative helpful sessions on Social Security planning for couples as well as sessions on avoiding mistakes in your financial plan and selecting a trusted financial advisor the financial lunch & Learn sessions are free and will even provide the lunch register today for our next lunch you learn at our ia advisors com click on the events tab for the link our ia advisors dot-com our ia advisors dot-com office is located one Sugar Creek Center Sugarland Texas when you go to borrow money where you go matters mortgages are very personal let's face it we're dealing with your home and your money it doesn't get any more personal than that and at Baker mortgage we understand that very well hi I'm Kathy Baker with Baker mortgage for over 60 years now we've been serving your neighbors all over Texas we're nothing like a big bank and you'll appreciate the difference wholesale rates real people answering the phone that ask for your name not your loan number prior to closing we audit your closing statement to make sure you're not paying for things you're not supposed to think your banks going to do that probably not my only question is why would you go anywhere else for all of your mortgage needs call us at Baker mortgage I promise you'll be glad you did we're at two eight one three one three six six eight three that's two eight one three one three move or go directly to Baker mortgage com Equal Housing lender license two six three two one three I'm good but I have a story and I don't know where to start I'm good but I feel alone in the crowd when the service member or a veteran in your life says I'm good are you really listening I still have nightmares I'm really not so good are you ready to listen suicide prevention is everyone's responsibility listen to the veteran or servicemember in your life if you are in crisis or know someone who is call the Veterans Crisis Line and military crisis line at one eight hundred two seven three eight two fifty five and press one and as we take another look what's happening in traffic reminder in case you're just tuning in there is a major accident working to tell you about on the south side South though eastbound just port Hillcroft a blocking one left in to center lanes also three lanes on the westbound side meanwhile another accidents just popped up katy freeway quest bound exit ramp to the west loop to watch out for that also watch for one blocking a left in a center lane east x-ray way southbound a green road now we're getting reports now but disabled vehicle on the North Loop westbound exits to the north freeway so watch for that if you're driving on the north side speak of the North freeway coming in southbound from FM 1960 into downtown looks like about 25 minutes as traffic on AM 700k SCV the voice of Texas [Applause] and welcome back so 647 so this weekend if you haven't got registered yet we have a class come in so right right lane retirement workshop this is a fantastic fantastically well done class by Danny and Richard about retiring well doing the right things lots of things that you have not been told before you're gonna learn in this class and if you're getting ready to retire or in retirement this is one of the best things you can do if you're – absolutely free what time is it it's at nine o'clock it's gonna be at the KT Mills Mall at the Courtyard Houston so um do sign up go to real investment advice com go to the events tab looks like storm is potentially gonna maybe miss us so hopefully we won't have a lot of rain on Saturday morning so sign up we're gonna be there either way there you go and then next Wednesday we also have another class we do we've got a handful of things coming up so we have on the 17th we have social security planning for couples so so often we make these decisions on our own it really needs to be something that's included with our spouse talks about some some ways that you can do this in a in in the proper manner yeah well there's you know then this is one of the mistakes that a lot of people make and they wind up leaving a lot of money on the table because you know the wife may want to retire early so she retires that you know 62 and she starts immediately taking her Social Security but the husband's still working um and so he retires at sixty you know seven or 69 it starts taking his Social Security there well by you know not planning better they wind up leaving a tremendous amount of money okay last the amount of money is its astronomical when you put it in perspective in a lump sum you're talking about hundreds of thousands of dollars it's not done right a lot of times you I actually see it the reverse where the husband was at the the wage earner he retires early he says screw it I'm taking Social Security right now I'm getting every dollar I can out of it right most the time it's an emotional decision it has to do so and there's not gonna be they're not gonna get it yep that's right it's wise well the wife's still working and he goes to head and takes it well guess what now you know so there's there's so many considerations to make but you have to remember if you're the high wage earner and you take it early you're really you're handcuffing your spouse to a lower pension payout you mean you got remember so security is essentially a pension payout it's to the payout it's a payout that you cannot live they're gonna continuously pay you that and so there's many ways and small nuances that will help you and we certainly share all this information with you give you the ideas of what you should and shouldn't do you know we talk to people every day about Social Security and it's so interesting all the different well you know one misinformation is out there and then to the it's so emotionally charged because you say oh I put so much money into it I need to get it all out and we're gonna show you exactly how to do that and we're tell you what your breakeven points are I mean you know there's certain places where you can really determine how to maximize Social Security and we can certainly help you with that yeah absolutely that's next Wednesday here in our offices it is right here on Katy Freeway so if you wanna go by and by the way we do feed you with these things so all you can do is show up there there are no steaks third day but you'll get fed yeah we know throw teen bar at you a little bit coffee so you're good anyway you know if Frank brought Hertz Donuts to one and everybody looks like we're nuts so I'm gonna start bringing carrots and broccoli you know it's interesting you know people they're there that is very interesting that you know as time goes by here you know used to you know a decade ago right people really liked a lot of the you know when you did these classes it really liked more kind of hi sweet content stuff and it's interesting to watch just in the last really last decade there is a movement towards mulch you know people wanting much healthier items there's been a huge shift it is so funny because doughnuts watched great yeah I mean that's that's we talk about health you know a healthy eating all the time and so I'm it's great people are making better choices well don't you know and you peak about 15 minutes into the presentation and then everybody crashes for the last half of the deal so you bring like five gallons of coffee so that's next Wednesday here at offices of course those Saturday just coming up this Saturday is the right right wing retirement workshop next week is the Wednesday class on Social Security planning for couples and you can register above those go to our website real investment advice calm click on the events tab and you're registered for one both all of them we've got a lot of classes coming up and a lot of new stuff coming up later on this year as well we've got some webinars some seminars some other things that are all coming down the pike so stay in tune if you keep watching our website we're always have something going on help make sure you're prepared for retirement simply go to real investment advice com so get ready to kind of wrap up for the day this morning futures are pointing down a little bit we were down yesterday most of the day the markets did managed a last-minute rally at the end of the day and this is kind of an interesting thing the most important time of the day investing wise is now the last 30 minutes of the market either the last 30 minutes are a buy rally from the computers or sell rally or sell-off buy computers one or the other but what happens in the first half of the day is generally inconsequential it's all in the last 30 minutes of the day so if you're going to trade you trade the last 30 minutes of the day and this is because of what's happened with the computerization of the markets and these algorithms are all being set up now to trade the last 30 minutes into the closed and it's becoming a real effective issue about the overall efficiency of the markets in fact the majority of the movement of the market from one month to the next is all driven in the last 30 minutes of the day now do you think that'll always be the case you remember back in the day you'd have guys that got up at 2:00 and 3:00 a.m. studied the market got ready you have your trades going and then you'd hear about this oh well they're home by 9:00 10 o'clock because there's nothing more to do well now their whole life's been turned upside down no it is it's true I mean look you know fundamental research and all that I mean is there's an interesting article the other day this this girl wrote this article talking about staying true to your investment discipline and she made a good point and is from the standpoint that if you're a value investor you have underperformed the benchmark index over the course of the last decade and that's because value investing has gone away for the most part relative to momentum investing and that's because of what's happening with computers and ETF crowding and a whole lot of other things so in order to perform with the market you've got to take on an exceptional amount of risk right and you've got to chase the momentum what she and again this is written by a girl who's never seen she's very young she's ever been through a bear market so all her whole perspective is about 2010 to now cuz that's the whole that's the whole time she's actually been in the market but the interesting thing about this is that a she's right over the last decade this market has been its own kind of monster but it's also a function of this transition from you know humans actually making investment decisions to this rise of robotic trading that's now have taken over and and so when you have computers basically looking at technical analysis price movement headlines there's whole algorithms that do nothing but search headlines there are algorithms in interesting one there are there are algorithms right now that run investment programs based on Google searches so they search Google for what are the most searched for stocks investment topics etc and whatever is so if a bunch of people are googling Apple today then they go buy Apple if people are googling you know Amazon they'll go buy they'll go buy Amazon of course it's almost self-fulfilling in one way but you know it's but it this is where we've gotten to so it's no longer a function of you know what are the price to books price to sells you know what are the fundamentals but this is the type of market we're in some about yesterday that one of the epitome of a a bull market cycle and the end of one when you're at the end of a bull market cycle you start seeing these rather stupid financial planning articles talking about retiring early on a quarter million bucks because if you if you have a quarter million dollars in the bank and you can make eight percent a year why work right and this is called financial independence prior to retire early you only see that at the end of bear markets be at the end of bull markets because during a bear market when people lose the majority of their money and are having to all go back to work you don't see these articles anymore you know you lose faith in the market think about that those if the market was down last year and most people don't realize that don't know they don't know and now if you talk to my December they knew right but right now there's so much information and the media has done such a good job of propping the market up saying look how great it is it's the best first for the best half of the year since you know 1930 well they forget to tell you is the worst quarter in q4 since 1930 it's just like June June the best month of June in the last 80 years what they failed to tell you it was the worst month of May and June didn't even recover the losses that you took in May right but again it's all about headlines and media but but the point about this this is what this is the attitude that you see during bull market cycles value investing will return and return with a vengeance it always does when you begin to see a market reversion in 1999 if you were investing like warren buffett you were said to be investing like deads old pontiac you don't want to do that you right you need to be buying all the tech stuff so you're buying value so you know why are you doing that this is the this is always the epitome of a hallmark or a hallmark of a the the maturity of a bull market cycle so just something to be aware of that when you're reading these headlines and talking about a lot of this stuff and hearing these things remember that everything runs in cycles and value investing is out no doubt about it momentum is in value is out typically the end of a cycle value when value comes back into favor that's the point you really want to be investing long term this is not the time to be investing long term now yeah everything needs to be done with the strict discipline and you need to have that exit strategy which so many people don't do we talk about it all the time everybody knows how to buy something but nobody knows when to sell we've had a dollar for every person I talked to said oh man I made so much money and then I watched it all go away because they never sold because I felt great oh it's gonna keep going I was gonna keep well I had this conversation just yesterday we had a client review yesterday and we're you know talking about portfolio management of things and you know in the end look everybody has these faves that they don't write you know the Exxon Mobil the Amazon whatever it is and you know people forget that as long all this regardless of what happens because it's my long-term money whatever it is things happen you know five years ago General Electric was I'm just gonna hold it forever and this General Electric it's never going away once you've lost about 80% of your money and the dividend right the things happen that's and and geez not there's not just an outlier right I mean it's it's one of many WorldCom Enron I mean we go right down the list of companies that people all believe we're gonna be long-term companies on Bethlehem still going back to the 70s these were companies that were believed to always be there they're always gonna pay out and they're gone and so could ExxonMobil go away absolutely you know what would it take maybe of you know somebody like aoc becoming you know president of the country and saying okay we're going to war on fossil fuels and we're all going to green energy you never know what's gonna happen and so the point about it is is make sure you understand the risk in your portfolio and understand that you're investing money and things you actually don't control so it's most important to protect the capital take profits when you have them and enjoy the ride while it lasts but also know that there's the time to leave like Danny said having an exit strategy is more important than having a bi strategy wraps up the show for the day get by the website real investment vice.com we'll see you tomorrow on the next edition lance roberts show right here real investment advice calm [Applause] [Applause]

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